But I honestly can't remember a single play Holiday made last year at UCLA.
Some say Ben Howland's system hides players, who then go on to achieve NBA success (pointing toward Mbah a Moute and Westbrook as examples). However, what exactly did Holiday show to deserve his draft standing?
It's nothing against Holiday. Any other year, he'd be flying under the radar and he could become a pleasant surprise for someone. But Holiday — along with guys like Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozan, Stephen Curry, Jordan Hill, Jeff Teague, and so on — are seeing their stock artificially inflated because of the lack of competition.
We have guys like DaJuan Blair — a guy who would've been a nice sleeper in the 20s — being talked about as a lottery pick, thanks to guys like Paul Milsap proving that you don't need to be tall to know how to rebound. We're seeing guys like Tyler Hansbrough — an ideal role player and energy guy — rumored to go as high as No. 11 to New Jersey, just because there aren't many prototypical "tough guys" in this draft.
Even guys I really like (James Harden, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington) have question marks surrounding them, too. I think Harden has a lot of Brandon Roy in him, but will he be able to shake off his dreadful showing in the NCAA tournament? Lawson's speed makes him nearly impossible to defend in today's handcheck-free NBA, but will his low line-drive jumper find enough clearance against bigger defenders? Ellington has the skills you want in a 2-guard, but does he have the leaping ability and strength to battle the Jason Richardsons of the world?
And we haven't even discussed Hasheem Thabeet yet. Some think he's the next Dikembe Mutombo, others swear he'll be out of the league in less than five years. It's true that you can't teach 7-foot-3, but whichever team drafts him better be prepared to go four-on-five on offense until Thabeet learns a post move or two. That's not something you want to hear about the potential No. 2 pick.
What about Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio? His high-profile success in the 2008 Olympics and his uncanny resemblance to a young Steve Nash help his cause, but his off-and-on jumper and the serious buyout issues with his professional team make him a risky proposition in the 2-4 range.
Ultimately, I think the 2009 draft will yield a handful of solid pros, putting it ahead of the 2000 class. But anybody expecting a replica of the 2008 draft will need to lower those expectations.
If this draft doesn't quite pan out, we still have John Wall to look forward to in 2010.
